I vote the pair, in 1.25 sealed, just because
Truthfully though, WinISD has done the same thing for me before. A subwoofer that the manufacturer recommends in smaller enclosures, it suggested a much larger enclosure.
I'm thinking manufacturer's use a generalization with their recommendation, most likely based on an approximate balance of output, low-end extension, and power handling. Kind of a middle ground of sorts that the average listener can use to ensure moderate results, with good reliability.